Our Story in Football Draw Betting

Our Story

Hi there! 👋

We are Todor and Simeon, a father-and-son team from Varna, Bulgaria, specializing in football draw betting. Predicto.bet grew out of our shared interest in football, statistics and analysis, and our search for a systematic way to approach life in general.

Football has been part of our lives for many years. Todor has followed our hometown club, Cherno More Varna, since his school days and later passed that interest on to Simeon. We both continue to follow the team, the Bulgarian championship and football more broadly, which naturally became part of our interest in football betting as well.

Our betting journey began much later, in 2022. Until then, Todor had never placed a sports bet. While looking for an additional source of income, he began exploring areas where he could put some of his strongest skills to practical use: logical thinking and analysis. He had studied at a mathematics high school, played chess for many years and, at his peak, reached roughly the top 1% of online blitz players on Lichess, one of the world’s largest online chess platforms.

That same year, Todor came across a YouTube video by JK Diego, a specialist in football draw betting. The idea immediately stood out. Draws were less popular among bettors, the odds were attractive, and the market seemed to offer room for a more analytical and systematic approach.

Todor began experimenting with Diego’s ideas, including a Martingale-style staking progression, while trying to understand what could make certain matches more suitable for draw betting. Simeon became involved almost from the beginning, helping with match analysis, discussing ideas and challenging assumptions. What started as one person’s experiment quickly became a shared project.

Alongside draw betting, we also experimented with a wide range of other football betting markets: home and away wins, Over and Under goals markets, Both Teams to Score, Asian handicaps and many variations in between. Some ideas looked promising at first but failed over larger samples. Others worked only under specific conditions. Gradually, we learned to distrust short winning streaks and focus much more on long-term performance.

During this period, Simeon also spent a year working for a company specializing in professional tipster services. His role involved analyzing betting markets, tipsters and their long-term performance, including metrics such as yield and profitability. That experience added another layer to the way we evaluate betting strategies and helped us look more critically at what represents a genuine edge and what may simply be short-term variance.

After years of testing different ideas, we kept returning to the same market: THE DRAW MARKET. Our experience gradually shaped the draw betting strategy we use today, built around systematic selection, value and long-term results.

Not because draws are easy to predict – they are not. And not because we believe there is a single formula that can identify them reliably. What keeps us interested is the combination of relatively high odds, opportunities for systematic analysis and a market that many bettors tend to overlook.

That is where Predicto.bet gradually took shape.

How We Think About Betting

We have never approached sports betting simply as casual entertainment or as a search for excitement. Our mindset is much closer to decision-making under uncertainty.

There are clear similarities with financial markets: information is collected, filtered and interpreted; probabilities are assessed; capital is put at risk; and decisions have to be made without knowing the outcome in advance. The challenge is to remain as rational as possible, control risk and avoid allowing emotions to dictate decisions.

Sports betting remains gambling, losses are inevitable, and no strategy can guarantee a profit. For us, however, the important distinction lies in how the activity is approached: not through impulse, chasing losses or trying to predict every match, but through data, probability, value, disciplined staking and long-term measurement.

Today, our approach is very different from where it began. We no longer rely on staking progressions to compensate for losing bets. Instead, we focus on identifying value, testing ideas over large samples, managing risk through flat staking and stop-loss rules and evaluating performance over the long term. We analyze more than 25,000 football matches a year and continue to refine several draw-betting strategies across different leagues and competitions.

Predicto.bet is the public side of that work. We publish our selections, track the results independently on Blogabet and allow the record to speak for itself.

Four years after our first draw bet, we are still studying the same market – only with far more data, experience and questions than when we started.